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Abstract

During the development of a Bayesian approach to estimate insect population abundance, it was necessary to compare not only the reliability of Bayesian estimates, but to also compare these estimates to those obtained by traditional methods employed by entomologists. To facilitate these comparisons it was necessary to use simulated fields apportioned into quadrats where conditions representative of insect abundance and dispersion are modeled. Thus, a simulation model was developed using SAS to derive example insect populations from which samples could be drawn. The negative binomial distribution was used to simulate the proportion of infested plants (p) with various degrees of clustering (k) for specified quadrat sizes. Another component varies sample parameters which represent the total number of plants sampled per field, the number of plants sampled per quadrat, and thus the number of quadrats sampled per field.

Keywords

Bayesian estimates, insect populations

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Apr 26th, 9:30 AM

A SIMULATION STUDY ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE ABUNDANCE AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF INSECTS AND SELECTED SAMPLING SCHEMES

During the development of a Bayesian approach to estimate insect population abundance, it was necessary to compare not only the reliability of Bayesian estimates, but to also compare these estimates to those obtained by traditional methods employed by entomologists. To facilitate these comparisons it was necessary to use simulated fields apportioned into quadrats where conditions representative of insect abundance and dispersion are modeled. Thus, a simulation model was developed using SAS to derive example insect populations from which samples could be drawn. The negative binomial distribution was used to simulate the proportion of infested plants (p) with various degrees of clustering (k) for specified quadrat sizes. Another component varies sample parameters which represent the total number of plants sampled per field, the number of plants sampled per quadrat, and thus the number of quadrats sampled per field.