Author Information

Eldon J. Thiessen

Is the first presenter a student?

No

Type of Submission

Paper/Presentation

Abstract

In response to farmers, millers, and government needs, the USDA began research on objective measurements of wheat yields in 1938. USDA's current objective yield program providing monthly pre-harvest forecasts of wheat production beginning on May 1 now includes 18 states and accounted for 87 percent of the U.S. wheat production in 1988 .

The Wheat Objective Yield Survey is a systematic subsample of the March Agricultural Survey conducted by Kansas Agricultural Statistics as part of the Quarterly Agricultural Survey program of the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). The fields and sample plots within the fields are selected following very carefully established rules. The counts and measurements from these sample fields are used in the forecast models developed by maturity category to predict number of heads and weight per head, the two components of yield which will provide the monthly yield indications .

Since the probability that a field will contain a sample is proportional to the expanded acres in the field, each acre has an equal chance of being selected for a sample and the average of the individual sample yields provides a self-weighting forecast of yield for the state .

Keywords

Area Frame, Forecast Model, List Frame, Objective Yield, Sample Plot.

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Apr 30th, 3:00 PM

KANSAS WHEAT OBJECTIVE YIELD SURVEY

In response to farmers, millers, and government needs, the USDA began research on objective measurements of wheat yields in 1938. USDA's current objective yield program providing monthly pre-harvest forecasts of wheat production beginning on May 1 now includes 18 states and accounted for 87 percent of the U.S. wheat production in 1988 .

The Wheat Objective Yield Survey is a systematic subsample of the March Agricultural Survey conducted by Kansas Agricultural Statistics as part of the Quarterly Agricultural Survey program of the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). The fields and sample plots within the fields are selected following very carefully established rules. The counts and measurements from these sample fields are used in the forecast models developed by maturity category to predict number of heads and weight per head, the two components of yield which will provide the monthly yield indications .

Since the probability that a field will contain a sample is proportional to the expanded acres in the field, each acre has an equal chance of being selected for a sample and the average of the individual sample yields provides a self-weighting forecast of yield for the state .